Clinton Campaign at a Tipping Point
Posted on February 15, 2008
Filed Under Democratic Primary
The dominoes have begun to fall on the Clinton campaigns much ballyhooed superdelegate strategy as another key supporter has switched to the Obama camp. The New York Times is reporting that long time civil rights activist Rep. John Lewis of Georgia will be throwing his support behind Barack Obama instead of Clinton.
Since Obama’s sweep in last weeks Potomac primary, it has been assumed that he would head into the convention with a small, but important lead in pledged delegates.  With a 100 point lead in superdelegates (party leaders who don’t have to adhere to primary results when choosing a candidate) it was thought that Clinton could still eek out a win buy calling in the chits of these party loyalists.  The fear in the Obama camp and among supporters is that no matter  what happens between now and August, the backroom dealing would somehow put Clinton over the top, despite the will of the popular vote.   Â
Two key points  that should worry Clinton. Â
By citing his districts overwhelming support for Obama and that it would be wrong for him his vote to run counter their wishes, Lewis sends an important message.  One of the Democrats biggest problems in a prolonged battle is the notion that this contest could be decided by superdelegates, who could ignore the results of the primaries and install whichever candidate they wish as the nominee.  How can the party that has fought disenfranchisement for the past eight years put forth a nominee that doesn’t represent the will of the voters?  Do the Democrats really want to risk a street fight with the Republicans with illegitimacy being used as a dagger against them?  Obviously, if the superdelegates adhere to the voters wishes and vote consistent with primary results then Obama wins. Â
Lewis also cited the sense of movement and spirit in Obama’s campaign. Â All season long Clinton has trumpeted her “electability” as an important reason to choose her over Obama, but how can she make the case that she offers a better chance against John McCain if she can’t even defeat Barack Obama? Â Electability is a key issue and by citing the movement and spirit of Obama’s campaign Lewis is stating that he wants to cast his vote with a winner. Â Right now Obama enjoys the appearance of a winner more than Clinton. Â Â Â Â
There have been numerous defections in the past week, but none are as potentially ominous to Clinton as Lewis.  As a respected and influential member of the African American community his loss is particularly painful to the Clinton campaign and it sends a message to other superdelegates beginning to waver that it is okay to switch to Obama.  The more superdelegates switch to Obama’s side the greater will be the perception of his inevitability and the more other superdelegates will want to climb on board, lest they risk remaining aligned with the wrong candidate and one with little to offer politically come the Denver convention.
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Momentum is all about momentum, which itself is about the perception of momentum.Â
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Comments
One Response to “Clinton Campaign at a Tipping Point”
A thoughtful analysis, with which I am in agreement. I hope events transpire as predicted here!