Democratic Race on Verge of Turning. Why Clinton will Win.
Posted on March 3, 2008
Filed Under Democratic Primary, Election 2008, NAFTA, Politics
The latest polls in Ohio show that the Obama surge has run it’s course and that Hillary will win the state without much problem.  More ominously for Obama is that polls have tightened again in Texas with momentum over the last 48 hours appearing to be clearly on the former first lady’s side.  With Clinton also leading in Rhode Island and on the verge of taking three of four tomorrow it seems we could be seeing a major turn in Democratic race.  After winning 11 straight primaries to close out February how can Obama possibly still lose this thing?  It appears that there are a few forces at work, all of which are unfavorable to Obama.       First, there is the relationship between Obama and his former friend Tony Rezko, whose  is currently on trial for corruption and other sundries.  The Rezko trial began today in Chicago and questions are being raised about a former land deal (sound familiar?) between Obama and Rezko.  The last thing Obama needs on the eve in the four primaries are questions about his ethics or business dealings.  While it seems that Obama has been forthcoming about this issue, questions remain as to whether more lurks around the corner and that might be enough to justify Clinton staying in the race until June when Puerto Rico holds their primary.       Then there is the NAFTA issue.  For the past week the Obama campaign has had to answer questions as to whether a top advisor of his met with the Canadians and suggested that his Obama’s harsh rhetoric vis a vis the free trade deal was little more than political jockeying for the Ohio vote and that his comments should be disregarded.  Not only would this be harmful to Obama in Ohio, but suggestions that Obama speaks from both sides of his mouth and panders to the locals could cause voters throughout the remaining primary states to question everything that he says from Rezko, to NAFTA, to health care, and Iraq.  Recent polling in Ohio suggests that this issue has gained traction there and is the reason for Clinton pulling back ahead after Obama briefly grabbed a lead.       It also seems that Clinton has finally gotten her campaign message straight.  Perhaps the ousting of Patty Solis Doyle is paying dividends.  The Clinton message for the past week has been unified, polished, and effective as they hammer away at Obama’s “readiness”.  One must ask why they waited so long to hit what was their most effective talking point, but perhaps there is still time.  Of all the issues, this should be the most worrisome for Obama, for one thing John McCain has going for him is readiness and if voters believe Obama might have difficulty on this issue they might trend back to Hillary.       I think Hillary will do well enough tomorrow to stay in the race at least until Pennsylvania and maybe longer.  Even though it’s impossible for her to acquire the delegates to win this outright I just feel somehow it will be her and McCain in the fall.  Whether they believe somehow Obama will still implode or they have something else up their sleeve, they are going to hang around long enough and then get this thing by attrition.    Perhaps if she weakens Obama enough, so that he loses in the fall she’ll just jump back in in 2012.  This was whispered in 2004 when there were questions over the support the Clinton’s gave John Kerry.Â
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