Why Indiana Matters
With the demographics of North Carolina heavily favoring Barack Obama, a win there is a near certainty for the Democratic frontrunner. More telling on the Senators prospects and the ultimate resolution of this endless Democratic primary will be the outcome of Indiana.
Where the Obama campaign has failed thus far is cutting into Clinton’s base—woman, seniors, blue-collar males—in the big states. The just completed Pennsylvania primary reinforced this worrisome trend, a trend that saw Obama unable to break out of the high 30% range in these key Democratic constituencies.   The Democrats cannot afford to put states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania in play in the general. In fact, no Democrat in the last 50 years has ever won the white house without winning Pennsylvania, a fact Hillary’s campaign has been repeatedly reminding the super delegates of.
Obama’s inability to win over these former Reagan Democrats has given Clinton a rationale for forging on. Obama needs to find a way to connect with these groups, for they make up a sizable chunk of the Indiana electorate. Doing so will put to rest much of the questions regarding his electability and likely put an end to Clinton’s white house bid, a development that would allow the Illinois senator to move to the center and better position himself against John McCain.
Sphere: Related ContentObama asks What’s the matter with Pennsylvania?
You would think a low income worker would be more impacted by the loss of his job than he would by gays in the military. You’d think that the rising cost of gasoline, bread, and milk would have a greater bearing on his life than would creationism being taught in school. You would think that not having health insurance during a medical crisis would be more painful than reinstating the inheritance tax - a tax they are unlikely to ever pay. What then explains the cognitive dissonance of so many on the lower rungs of the economic ladder consistently voting in support of a party that is hostile to their interests? Why do so many states in America’s heartland vote Republican?
Kansas used to be a hotbed of leftist activism, but is today so conservative that the partisan line in that state resides between the hard and moderate right with the left out of the equation altogether. The issue of economy has been extricated from the political debate replaced by a culture war that is so puzzling that it leads one to raise the question what is the matter with Kansas? That was in fact the title of Thomas Frank’s seminal work where this grand mystery of America was explored.
Barack Obama touched on this question at a fundraiser this week in remarks that were nothing but honest if not nuanced. Obama touched off a firestorm with Republicans and Democratic foes branding him as elitist and “out of touch”. Nothing Obama said deviated from reality.
The Republican reaction is not only predictable, but what is needed to keep this culture war rolling in perpetuity. Just look at the attack line, with words of elitism and hints of racism. It plays to our worst fears and tendencies at the expense of an honest and open discussion. But that’s what you do to keep the red states voting red.
Sphere: Related ContentObama’s Public Fianancing Pledge now Haunting him
Barack Obama has quite the problem on his hand with this public financing pledge of his. Obviously he had no clue as to his fundraising prowess or the vast riches hidden in the netherworld of the internet when he made the pledge to publicly finance a general election campaign, for he would have never made such a promise knowing that he was ceding a huge advantage over John McCain. As one would expect of a politician, Obama has since gingerly backtracked on the pledge, assuming a non-comital stance. The problem is that Obama has raised all this money and inspired a cult like following by positioning himself as a new kind of politician. To go back on his pledge now would how that he is no different than the others and ultimately leave a legion of supporters disillusioned. In that case the millions of extra advertising dollars won’t do him a whole lot of good.
Sphere: Related ContentNancy is Looking Like a Big Silly
What is Nancy Pelosi doing? First she announced that the Superdelegates should vote consistent with that of the pledged delegates, a position that infuriated the Clinton camp and elated the Obamaites. It also earned her a swift kick in the posterior by a cadre of Clinton backing Democratic money people in the form of a sternly worded letter this past week. So does the embattled Speaker of the House stand firm or explain her rationale for supporting the will of the people? That’s a big no. Instead she did a 180 degree turn, announcing that the Supers should vote in any way they see fit. How do you think the campaigns are reacting to this?
Memo to Nancy: Next time maybe just keep your opinions to yourself. It’s not the Speakers role to get involved in the elections.
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