Why Indiana Matters
Posted on April 25, 2008
Filed Under Democratic Primary, Politics
With the demographics of North Carolina heavily favoring Barack Obama, a win there is a near certainty for the Democratic frontrunner. More telling on the Senators prospects and the ultimate resolution of this endless Democratic primary will be the outcome of Indiana.
Where the Obama campaign has failed thus far is cutting into Clinton’s base—woman, seniors, blue-collar males—in the big states. The just completed Pennsylvania primary reinforced this worrisome trend, a trend that saw Obama unable to break out of the high 30% range in these key Democratic constituencies.   The Democrats cannot afford to put states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania in play in the general. In fact, no Democrat in the last 50 years has ever won the white house without winning Pennsylvania, a fact Hillary’s campaign has been repeatedly reminding the super delegates of.
Obama’s inability to win over these former Reagan Democrats has given Clinton a rationale for forging on. Obama needs to find a way to connect with these groups, for they make up a sizable chunk of the Indiana electorate. Doing so will put to rest much of the questions regarding his electability and likely put an end to Clinton’s white house bid, a development that would allow the Illinois senator to move to the center and better position himself against John McCain.
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