Shakeup in Clinton Camp over Campaign’s Mismanagement
Much has been written about the mismanagement of the Clinton campaign from the poor use of funds to the positioning of Clinton as an incumbent type candidate.  The scapegoat for this is Patti Solis Doyle who stepped down after this weekend primary sweep by Barack Obama, ending a decade and a half of loyal service to Clinton.  A perusal of the comment section of my favorite blogs suggests that Clinton supporters are hailing the move as long overdue.   Â
In today’s Atlantic, Josh Green expounds on the fissures in Hillaryland that date back to her Sentate campaign in 2000:  Â
In one sense, Solis Doyle performed exactly as Hillary had hoped. Somewhat to my surprise, the long-standing fissures in Hillaryland never truly erupted when Clinton came under presidential-campaign pressure, certainly not the way they did in 2000. For all the chaos and disillusionment with Clinton’s performance so far inside the campaign, very little of it had leaked to the press until just recently. And despite her late start, Clinton did not lag on the money front: she has raised $175 million since winning her Senate seat in 2000, which should have been enough to fund a formidable campaign, even one that dragged on as long as this one has. That the money was so obviously mismanaged and Clinton was essentially left helpless to compete in last weekend’s primaries and caucuses is the reason Solis Doyle ultimately had to go. The problem, as before, was mismanagement — only this time against a worthy enough opponent that the cost was obvious to everyone.Â
Momentum Back on Obama’s Side
Weekend sweep puts the wind at his back. Â Chesapeake Next.
 Like a baseball team winning it’s playoff home games, the Obama campaign did what it was supposed to this weekend taking 5 of 5 home games-Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, the Virgin Islands, Washington State-and recapturing crucial momentum going into Chesapeake Tuesday. More important than just holding serve, Obama’s wins were decisive, allowing him to increase his lead among pledged delegates and make a convincing case to Super Delegates that his is the campaign best positioned to beat John McCain in the fall. To date Obama has won 19 of the 29 states thus far contested, a 2/3 margin. The next five contests are District of Colombia, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, and Wisconsin, all of which he is projected to win. From a delegate standpoint these wins would be offset by Clinton victories in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but the combination of ten straight victories coupled with the ability Obama has shown to win anywhere-north, south, east, and west-among whites, blacks, young, and old. This has to weigh heavily among Super Delegates who burn to return the White House to Democratic hands.As for Tuesday’s contests, current polls are showing Obama with commanding leads in both Maryland (53%-35%) and Virginia (53%-37%). Â
Delegate Count Makes Convention Battle a Near Certainty
It’s All About the Super Delegates
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The way the Delegate battle has gone so far it is almost impossible for the Democratic nomination to be decided before Denver’s convention.  With a total pool of 3253 potential delegates, 2025 needed to win the nomination, and roughly 900 won by each so far, there are 1400 remaining delegates to decided this contest.  This means that to wrap this up prior to the convention a candidate would need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates. An analysis of the map shows this as an impossibility. Â
The next 7 or 8 contests heavily favor Obama and Hillary should do well in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Â If just that much holds true it secures enough delegates on each side to push this to Denver. Â Then there are myriad other factors that makes a pre-convention decision unlikely. Â The party is split too closely between Obama and Clinton to expect a sudden 80% break in any one direction. Â Barring something crazy happening or some scandal breaking, for the first time in 30 years a primary is going to be decided at the convention. Â This one will be decided by the Super Delegates.Â
What is a Super Delegate anyway? Â Unlike regular delegates who are legally bound to vote as consistent with primary or caucus results, a Super Delegate can vote any way they please. Â Another way to refer to them would be as unpledged delegates. Â Super delegates are normally made up of current elected officeholders, former elected officeholders, current party officials, and former party officials. Â Their creation was an attempt to keep control of the nomination process in the hands of party officials rather than the primary process. Â
Who is winning among Super Delegates?
Currently there are 178 Super Delegates supporting Hillary Clinton, a list that includes:  Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Walter Mondale, Maxine Waters,  Marion Barry, Barney Frank, Dick Gephardt, Jon Corzine, Robert Menendez, Eliot Spitzer, Chuck Schumer, Terry McAuliffe, and Sheldon Silver.  A complete list can be found here. Â
Currently there are 90 Super Delegates that are supporting Barack Obama including:  Patrick Kennedy, Dick Durbin, Jesse Jackson Jr., Ted Kennedy, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, John Conyers, Tom Daschle, Patrick Leahy, and Rick Boucher.  The full list can be found here.
Conventions of recent vintage have been criticized as little more than four-day parties with scripted outcomes, but that hasn’t always been the case.  In 1976, Ronald Reagan battled President Ford all the way through the primaries.  Ford had just enough delegates to win entering the convention.  Reagan worked hard to woo some away; Ford worked equally hard to keep them.  Ultimately Ford won by a slender margin on the first ballot, but not without a ton of back room brokering.   Â
In 1952 it took three ballots for Adlai Stevenson to win the Democratic nomination.  Republicans went three ballots in 1948 to give Tom Dewey the nomination over Ohio Sen. Robert Taft.  Perhaps the most famous battled convention was in 1924 when Democrats went through 103 ballots over nine days in New York to settle on John W. Davis, a Wall Street lawyer and one-term congressman, ending the brutal duel between New York Gov. Al Smith and Californian William McAdoo, the two leading candidates.  Adding to the drams was that many delegates were Ku Klux Klan members, virulently opposed to Smith, A roman Catholic.  Davis–seen as someone above the fray who could help heal a party nearly torn to the seams–was chosen and ultimately lost the presidency to Calvin Coolidge.  Â
While 2008 might not be a return to those turbulent days, the coming months should bring political drama the likes of which has not been seen in years.  Â
Obama Well Positioned for Stretch Run
To the shock of no one, the results of Super Tuesday on the Democratic side were inconclusive.  With the exception of Connecticut there were no big surprises.  Clinton hung on to Massachusetts, New Jersey, and California, helped in part by early voting that took place prior to Obama’s recent surge.  That he kept himself in the game and within a hundred delegates of Clinton has to be viewed as a victory by Obama’s campaign.   With his superior fund raising - Obama raised nearly a million a day last month, more than twice that of Clinton - and ability to spend time in individual states, gaining face time with voters the turf seems to be shifting towards Obama.  The longer the contest grinds on, the better positioned Obama becomes and one reason why his aids were claiming victory last night. Perhaps the evenings only real loser was Ted Kennedy whose endorsement was not enough to help Obama win his home state of Massachusetts or California where he campaigned vigorously for the candidate. Â
Who Pays the Price for Racial Split Among Democrats?
As much as the democratic candidates have protested of not wanting to get drawn into a contest split along racial lines, recent polling data confirm that democratic voters are clearly divided as such. In Nevada, Latinos—many going against the dictates of their culinary union—favored Clinton by 38 points, while blacks preferred Obama by a whopping 69 points. The question is who will pay the price for this decent into racial politics, Clinton or Obama?
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The reasons behind Hispanic support for Clinton are complex ranging from a nostalgia of the Clinton era, Hillary’s work on child health care to the lack of culpability Latinos feel over segregation and the historical mistreatment of the African American community, which like it or not does play a factor in the psychological phenomenon that is Obama.
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You’d have to figure that if given a choice, most Democratic candidates would chose black support of Hispanic, as it is a bigger and more polarizing demographic. But it is the white vote that really becomes the issue should trench warfare evolve. With Obama positioning himself above the fray of racial politics the choice to vote for him becomes easier. How many of those whites who feel good about their support of a black candidate will abandon that stance once in the privacy of a curtained voting booth should the politics become a bit too racially tinged for comfort, transforming Obama into a black candidate?
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Neither candidate can win November without the strong support of the black community and with the party not wanting to cede this contest to John McCain or Mitt Romney, it is a good bet that the racial sniping shall cease.  Â
Endorsements Handcuffing Obama’s Delegate Strategy
Delegates at Stake
Massachusettes   127
New Jersey          127
California             441
Current Massachusetts polling shows Hillary Clinton with a sizable 45 to 27.5 point advantage for this Tuesdays upcoming primary. With only 121 delegates one must ask why is Barak Obama suddenly spending so much time and resources in a state he at one point wasn’t even going to compete in?  He is running closer in both New Jersey and California, states with roughly 600 delegates between them. Logic would dictate that his resources would be better spent cutting Massachusetts loose and focusing on those delegate rich states where he stands a better chance.There is one problem with that strategy and that is Ted Kennedy. Kennedy put considerable prestige on the line by endorsing Obama, somewhat obligating Obama to now compete in that state. In addition to Kennedy, Obama has received endorsements from Massachusetts icons, John Kerry and Governor Deval Patrick. This has created quite the quandary for Obama and raises the question as to how valuable these sorts of endorsements actually are.
With Clinton Weakening, Gang of Four Ready to Pounce
The Gang of Four, a quartet of influential and rabidly anti-Clinton Democrats, are waiting for the perfect time to drive a stake through the heart of Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions. The question is, with 72 hours to go before the Super Tuesday primaries, is time slipping away? The cadre—Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, Howard Dean, and John Kerry—has vowed personally and collectively to do whatever necessary to keep the nomination from Clinton, each possessing compelling reasons to revile the former First Lady.  Kennedy and Gore have long hated the centrist ground staked out by Bill and Hillary, and were disgusted with the Senator’s support for the war in Iraq. Gore further resented the Clinton’s lack of support in his own presidential campaign of 2000, feeling crucial democratic resources were diverted to Hillary’s New York Senate campaign in that same year. As for Dean, it is well known that Bill Clinton worked feverishly behind the scenes in keeping fellow democrats from supporting Dean’s candidacy. Fearing that a Kerry win in ‘04 would choke off any opportunity for Hillary to run in ‘08, Clinton provided little support for that campaign as well, incensing John Kerry, and perhaps making the difference in George Bush’s razor like win that year. Obama’s campaign gained significant momentum when Ted Kennedy, on the heels of Obama’s sweeping victory in South Carolina, joined Kerry in endorsing the candidate.  Dean and Kerry Gore have held their preference close to the vest thus far.  As chairman of the DNC, Dean’s work in promoting an Obama candidacy would likely be done behind the scenes leaving it to Gore, whose endorsement could truly define this race.   The buzz in political circles is that Gore is waiting to see if Obama wins Super Tuesday and will then endorse, perhaps driving the final nail in Hillary’s coffin. Our question is, why wait? If Gore endorses, it could provide the final burst of momentum to insure an Obama win Tuesday. Recent polls show that Obama has closed the gap to 4 points. Can he make up the balance in the remaining hours? With Gore’s help it would be more likely.   Go for it Al.
Edwards Out. Good for Obama or Hillary?
The conventional wisdom is that John Edwards’ withdrawl from the Democratic Primary will be a boon to Barak Obama as the anti-Clinton vote coalesces behind him. I would hope that would be the case, but a closer peak at the demographics of Edwards’ base makes me skeptical.
Edwards’ populist message has primarily appealed to the white, blue collar voter, a group that has gone overwhelmingly for Clinton thus far. If that group moved behind Hillary it could potentially blow the race wide open.
35% - Obama’s Support Among Whites Holds Steady
The exit polls from Nevada provide more evidence that Obama has been unable to break out of his ceiling of approximately one-third of the white vote. In fact, in each of the three Democratic contests thus far, Obama’s support among whites has been remarkably consistent:Â
 If this 35% ceiling does, in fact, exist, it’s interesting to compare it to Jesse Jackson’s performance in 1988. Despite the passage of 20 years and the fact that Jackson and Obama are very different candidates and personalities, Obama hasn’t performed significantly better than Jackson. During the 1988 primaries, especially once the race narrowed down to Dukakis and Jackson, Jackson’s white support ranged between 20 and 35 percent.
Talk of Bill Clinton as a Harmful Lightning Rod Misses the Point
Let us not forget that Bill Clinton is perhaps the savviest politician we’ve seen in a generation.  If he is misspeaking and proving a magnet for intensive criticism it is by design.  Recent chatter questioning whether the former President is harming Hillary’s shot at the nomination misses the point.Â
Yes Clinton is a lightning rod, but notice what has happened since he has injected himself into this campaign. Â Suddenly the bulk of punches are thrown his way in lieu of Hillary, at the same time her poll numbers have rebounded strongly and her national campaign once again looks like a winner. Â The other dynamic at play is what we might call the George Steinbrenner strategy. Â Baseball fans in New York will recall that anytime the Mets were winning, the Yankee owner would fire a manager, release a player, make inflamatory comments, or do something to recapture the back page, whether negative or positive. Â The key was always keeping the story about The Yankees. Â Suddenly the stories coming out of New Hampshire and South Carolina are all about Bill Clinton, leaving less press for Barack Obama. Â Dick Morris calls it “sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
“Morris, who was Clinton’s political stratagist during his initial presidential run, has gone on record saying that Hillary Clinton’s “stay at home and bake cookies comments” during the ‘92 race were part of an organized strategy to make her the magnet for GOP critisism, shielding Bill from the same. Â That ‘92 convention thus became all about Hillary, leaving little critisms left for the former President. Â Â
Sound familiar?Â
