Electoral Predictions for General Election
By every reasonable metric the Democrats should enjoy overwhelming success this November. With the economy, war, and demographic trends on their side, coupled with the Obama Campaign’s efforts to rewrite the traditional Democratic map, states that had traditionally been ceded to the Republican’s will now be in play.
Building on John Kerry’s results in 2004 and factoring in Obama’s aggressive voter registration campaigns, demographics shifts, primary polling, I’ve put together the following map as to how I see this November playing out. You’ll notice that key battleground states of Florida and Ohio are assumed to go to McCain, yet Barack Obama still emerges victorious. Such a result hinges on the Democrat successfully plucking Colorado, Montana, and North Carolina from the Republican column.
With Clinton Weakening, Gang of Four Ready to Pounce
The Gang of Four, a quartet of influential and rabidly anti-Clinton Democrats, are waiting for the perfect time to drive a stake through the heart of Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions. The question is, with 72 hours to go before the Super Tuesday primaries, is time slipping away? The cadre—Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, Howard Dean, and John Kerry—has vowed personally and collectively to do whatever necessary to keep the nomination from Clinton, each possessing compelling reasons to revile the former First Lady.  Kennedy and Gore have long hated the centrist ground staked out by Bill and Hillary, and were disgusted with the Senator’s support for the war in Iraq. Gore further resented the Clinton’s lack of support in his own presidential campaign of 2000, feeling crucial democratic resources were diverted to Hillary’s New York Senate campaign in that same year. As for Dean, it is well known that Bill Clinton worked feverishly behind the scenes in keeping fellow democrats from supporting Dean’s candidacy. Fearing that a Kerry win in ‘04 would choke off any opportunity for Hillary to run in ‘08, Clinton provided little support for that campaign as well, incensing John Kerry, and perhaps making the difference in George Bush’s razor like win that year. Obama’s campaign gained significant momentum when Ted Kennedy, on the heels of Obama’s sweeping victory in South Carolina, joined Kerry in endorsing the candidate.  Dean and Kerry Gore have held their preference close to the vest thus far.  As chairman of the DNC, Dean’s work in promoting an Obama candidacy would likely be done behind the scenes leaving it to Gore, whose endorsement could truly define this race.   The buzz in political circles is that Gore is waiting to see if Obama wins Super Tuesday and will then endorse, perhaps driving the final nail in Hillary’s coffin. Our question is, why wait? If Gore endorses, it could provide the final burst of momentum to insure an Obama win Tuesday. Recent polls show that Obama has closed the gap to 4 points. Can he make up the balance in the remaining hours? With Gore’s help it would be more likely.   Go for it Al.
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